The Political Fix: How did Modi’s BJP get the Teflon coating ensuring that no blame sticks to it?
Is the 56-inch chest made of Teflon?
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The Big Story: Double standards?
Imagine this situation.
A political ally of the Congress party is convicted of corruption, yet somehow allowed to continue as before because the Election Commission cuts short the disqualification period. A bank, with political links to the Congress, comes close to failing, and then it emerges that the reason for this was massive amounts of fraud and money not noted on the books.
The markets react badly to this, worried that many other politically connected banks might have similar stories hidden away. The Congress government, more worried about industry than the slowdown in the wider economy and unemployment, decides to give tax cuts to corporates instead. Meanwhile, predicted Gross Domestic Product growth is slashed three times in the same year.
The Congress prime minister visits the United States but comes away without even a modest trade deal, and an admonition to improve India’s human rights records “rapidly.” And amid all of this, yet another Congress leader is accused of rape by a young woman.
If you remember anything of the years in which India was led by the Congress-run United Progressive Alliance, you would know that this sounds like a recipe for one of the many crises that were familiar from those years. Indeed, the combination of circumstances might have been enough to put the government on the ropes.
Now replace all references to the Congress with the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. If you haven’t already gathered, the paragraphs above are an accurate description of our current moment. The Election Commission has gone soft on the corrupt Sikkim Chief Minister. The BJP’s mismanagement of the economy continues to play out as more fraud emerges from the banking sector, including a BJP-connected bank.
The RBI has lowered this year’s growth forecast to 6.1% from 6.9%, and this is after bringing it down from 7.4% in February. Prime Minister Narendra Modi spent a week in the US without getting much for India. And Chinmayanand, a former union minister, has been accused of rape.
Yet, far from being on the ropes or in crisis mode, the BJP appears to be in a very comfortable space. Sure, on the economic front, it continues to seem like it has no idea how to go forward. But from a political standpoint, with elections to Maharashtra and Haryana due on October 21, the BJP is not just the front-runner but already a presumptive victor.
What gives?
Under Modi and BJP President Amit Shah, the party has not only notched up extremely impressive electoral victories, it has also put in place an aura of invincibility. No criticism seems to stick to the party.
Things that would have been blamed on the Congress leadership are often given excuses. Remember the arguments that Modi’s niyat, his intentions, were good at the time of demonetisation, and the problem was the bureaucrats actually implementing the move?
This aura doesn’t emerge from nowhere. In fact, it is possible to point to a few things that go into building it:
Nationalism, communalism, majoritarianism and Pakistan: This is the obvious explanation. The BJP has successfully centred the narrative around emotive questions of nationalism, working hard to project Modi as being the same as India, and turning any questions against him as being critical of the country. Throw in a good dose of Hindu majoritarianism, and you have a formula that is not easy to either beat or emulate.
Us vs Them: In the same vein, the BJP has consistently pushed the idea that politics is a binary between it and India’s enemies. There is no middle ground, no opportunity for self-reflection for those who do support the BJP but take issue with some of its moves. It is all or nothing, which is why for those in the BJP camp, even rape accusations against one of their leaders is seen as a conspiracy and an insult, rather than allegations of a crime.
Pliant media: Most of the national media, particularly television, has given up any semblance of doing journalism that holds the government accountable. Indeed, as if they too have been stung by the majoritarian bug, the most watched TV channels spend their time berating the Opposition (and insisting that India now dictates the global order) rather than offering an accurate picture of the nation.
Shambolic Opposition: As Milan Vaishnav put it, “One hundred days into its second term, the BJP is focused on securing a third mandate in 2024 while the Congress is still reeling from the debacle of 2014.” Indeed, while some of it is a struggle to address the majoritarian politics that the BJP has perfected, the mistakes of the Opposition are magnified by their terrible organisational structures and ineffective leaders, with the Congress at the very front of the pack.
Political funding: Even as one acknowledges that Modi and Shah have been extremely successful at building a strong political narrative that is hard to take on, it is also important to acknowledge that they put in place an electoral funding system that privileges the party in power and includes no transparency. This allows the BJP to massively outspend its opponents and spread its propaganda nationwide.
While all of those things are true, it still really is remarkable how much of a teflon coating the BJP under Modi and Shah have had, managing to weather nearly every storm without so much as a drop falling on them.
Even as we, on a weekly basis in the Political Fix, examine the successes and failures of their policies, it is impossible to ignore the extremely powerful narrative machine they have built that continues to bulldoze its way through the country.
What else may explain this success? And will (or can) anything come in its way? Write to rohan@scroll.in with your thoughts.
Catch-up
Kashmir is still under lockdown. It has been 63 days now. Despite the government claiming the lockdown is only in “some people’s minds”, here is a picture of what normalcy looks like in Kashmir.
Maharashtra election watch: Shiv Sena scion Aaditya Thackeray jumped into the fray, the first of his influential clan to actually contest an election. Meanwhile, Chief MInister Devendra Phadnavis asserted his power over the BJP state unit, with former senior ministers Eknath Khadse, Vinod Tawde, and Prakash Mehta all being left out of the candidate list.
Haryana election watch: The Congress infighting continues, with former state unit chief Ashok Tanwar resigning from primary membership of the party, after he was denied a ticket. Though Tanwar is not terribly influential, the infighting so close to elections on October 21 does not bode well for the party.
The Supreme Court is rushing to hear an urgent plea against the cutting of trees in Mumbai’s Aarey colony. Police attempted to prevent citizens protesting against the cutting from reaching the area over the last few days, after the Bombay High Court said that Aarey is not a forest.
The Election Commission arbitrarily reduced the period of Sikkim Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang’s disqualification from electoral contest. Tamang is, obviously, a BJP ally, which may explain why even a conviction for corruption did not hurt him.
The squabbling between alliance partners, BJP and Janata Dal (United) in Bihar continues. Much of it from the BJP side is aimed at JD(U) head and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who would otherwise be expected to take the lead in political planning ahead of elections next year.
The euphoria of the stock market after the tax cuts has disappeared. Fears of further financial sector contagion, and the realisation that it may not reduce the effective tax rate much, has meant that this will not be the panacea all were hoping for.
Poll toon
On Scroll.in last week
I write: There is no way to be polite about it. Indian Home Minister Amit Shah’s proposal to allow refugees into India as long as they aren’t Muslim is both unconstitutional and bigoted.
Rajesh Kasturirangan tells us how authoritarian rulers are using algorithmic politics to tighten their grip, including in India.
There is division in Naga groups, even as India seems to think it is about to reach an agreement to help end the decade-old dispute, reports Arunabh Saikia.
Aarefa Johari reports from Maharashtra on the impact that putting an export ban on onions has on farmers.
Reports and Op-Eds
“How do we ensure the ideals of Gandhi are remembered by future generations?” This is the question that Prime Minister Narendra Modi poses in an Op-Ed under his name published in the New York Times, that, as many have pointed out touches only on part of Gandhi’s legacy.
Modi may have declared India open-defecation free, but there are miles to go before this is true – and government coercion will not achieve it. Nazar Khalid and Nikhil Srivastav write in the Hindu about a study of 10,000 people that found 44% still defecating in the open.
We need to take a very close look at ‘pakodanomics’, the idea that self-employed entrepreneurs will revitalise the Indian economy. Anjana Thampi and Ishan Anand in Mint find that only 4% of the self-employed create jobs, while the majority are underpaid and many rely on unpaid help.
The Reserve Bank of India’s annual study of state budgets finds troubling indications of expenditure cuts and more debt. Udit Misra of the Indian Expresslooks at some of the conclusions here.
Kerala once again tops the NITI Aayog’s School Education Quality Index, which puts the state on a solid footing. But the numbers reveal a huge disparity in education indicators across India, suggesting that much more needs to be done for states like Uttar Pradesh to catch up.
India needs a government-run land bank. This will address the Non Banking Financial Company crisis, says Andy Mukherjee on Bloomberg, by taking on the real danger that insolvent real estate firms pose to the wider economy. Anant Narayan, on CNBC-TV18, has a different solution for the same problem.
Can’t make this up
Here’s subcontinental story with a couple of layers. At the top level is the rather uncomfortable phrasing: “Tycoons’ dinner reception with COAS: Top businessmen explode before Gen Bajwa.” Don’t worry, no corporate “tycoons” actually blew up in front of Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa. The News here is using “explode” metaphorically, though pretty much any sub-editor would tell you that – considering the context – maybe some other imagery would have been more appropriate. The second layer is the story itself: The Pakistani businesspersons appear to have dropped any pretence about who runs the country, and decided to take their economy complaints to the Pakistani Army chief. Imagine business leaders doing the same in the United Kingdom, or even India?
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